Charles Dumas joined TS Lombard in 1998, becoming Chief Economist in 2005. He is recognised as one of the world’s leading macroeconomic forecasters. He has written several books on the global economy, including ‘Globalisation Fractures’ (2010), which earned praise from Paul Volcker, former Fed chairman and adviser to President Obama: “In the midst of the struggle to deal with the international financial crisis, too little attention has been paid to the underlying imbalances … Charles Dumas spells it out in clear analysis and convincing detail.” Charles has 40 years’ experience as an economist and financial markets professional. In the 1980s he was Head of Research for JP Morgan in London. In the 1970s he was Director of European Economics for General Motors. Before that he worked on tax reform for the Conservative Party and as a journalist on The Economist newspaper. He was a Managing Director in JP Morgan's New York M&A department from 1988 to 1992 and had previously worked in its capital markets group in New York and London.
The early 1990s end of the Japanese boom & more importantly how structural over-investment & lack of bank bad debt clearance would condemn Japanese GDP to disappoint for a generation.
The US 1998-2001 equity boom & bust cycle.
The 2005-2007/8 Eurasian Savings glut & rapid expansion of broad money leading to severe financial imbalances & hence a bubble. Charles also managed in reverse to call the low in the S&P in the spring of 2009.
Post GFC the US deleveraging, competitive readjustment & subsequent recovery in the economy & asset prices & hence correctly overweight US equities ever since.
The peak of Chinese GDP growth in late 2010 due to massive over-investment & concomitant misallocation of resources (echoes of our early 1990s bearish call on Japan). This was reversed to a more positive relative view after the GDP lows in Q1 2016.
That ‘Abenomics’ was fatally flawed as it did not address Japan’s structural problems (eg excess corporate surpluses/misallocation of capital,real incomes suppression, etc) & hence the consensus predicted domestic demand & consumer boom would never take-off. However, TS Lombard was market astute enough to recognize that in the first instance this would lead to yen weakness & hence initially strong equity out-performance.
Consistently that Eurozone economic growth ex Germany would disappoint due to the ‘one size-fits all’ euro causing huge internal dislocation & imbalances.
More recently (2018-now) the gyrations in Fed policy & associated turning points in Fed asset purchases leading to successfully trading the swings in capital markets due to changes in Fed tightening & easing.
"Charles Dumas has been more right than just about anyone".
Senior Portfolio Strategist, Macro Hedge Fund, Boston, U.S.
"We have utilized TS Lombard’s research for over 10 years. We find it independent, conservatively grounded and a refreshing viewpoint on both US economic activity and the world. We are especially grateful for the commentaries from Charles Dumas, Steve Blitz, Dario Perkins and Leigh Skene."
Thomas H. Atteberry, Partner, First Pacific Advisors LP, Los Angeles, U.S.
"Charles Dumas... one of the few truly original thinkers about the economy and markets".
Randall W Forsyth, Barron’s, New York. US.
"Charles Dumas is widely acknowledged as Britain's most accurate and respected economics forecaster".