2018 has been a rollercoaster year for commodities. Resilience during the early part of the year gave way to intensifying downside pressure over the summer. Gold, industrial metals and (to a lesser extent) oil have all suffered.
At the start of the year, the market was focused on late-cycle dynamics that were bullish for commodities against the backdrop of a synchronised world economic expansion. Both nominal and real long Treasury yields rose, in tandem with inflation breakeven rates, on evidence of solid growth, mounting price pressures and an increasingly confident Powell Fed.
We believe industrial metals are now oversold, but the upside may still be capped.
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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.READ MORE