30 years of independent research linking macro to markets

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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record in making off consensus-calls on major turning points in economics, politics and markets. We have made our reputation by making bold calls ahead of major inflection points. For example, building on our global economic and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – and just as importantly we identified the turning point and the bottom of the stock market too. The different policy responses to the crisis have led to the greater uncertainty and volatility that investors face today.

We believe that the global economy is at another inflection point. The world has changed and we see several new and different vulnerabilities coming to the fore, each one equally important and any one of which could lead to market ruptures. These issues call for deep thinking and strong analysis. To highlight the most important themes we are publishing a series of research notes under the title of “Global Fractures”. You can read some sample reports from the series below.

Global economic recovery underway for 2020

Global economic recovery underway for 2020

2020 a year of two halves

2020 a year of two halves

Emerging Markets coming into 2020

Emerging Markets coming into 2020

Trade deal has 'no bite' as it lacks an enforcement mechanism: Expert

Trade deal has 'no bite' as it lacks an enforcement mechanism: Expert

Three structural political drivers to look out for in 2020

Three structural political drivers to look out for in 2020

No one will win in the US-China trade war: Expert

No one will win in the US-China trade war: Expert

Economy, wages will heat up in 2020 -economist

Economy, wages will heat up in 2020 -economist

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (12/9/2019)

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (12/9/2019)

13 Jan 2020 - Charles Dumas

Daily Note: Keynsian deficits - a tale of 2 isles

  • Japan and the UK are the two contrasting test cases of fiscal easing
  • Japan’s deficits are forced, and have done little to prevent debt risks
  • Benefits from Trump’s US corporate tax cuts were offset by trade war
  • UK is swinging sharply towards fiscal stimulus – 1st mover advantage?

 

11 Dec 2019 - Shweta Singh

Daily Note: Dollar Hegemony and New Risks

  • Global trade and finance more closely linked than meets the eye
  • Dollar hegemony means the Fed is the global lender of first resort
  • Risk triggers increasingly lie outside the banking sector
  • This Daily Note is the seventh of eight in our “Global Fractures” series
04 Dec 2019 - Charles Dumas / Larry Brainard / Christopher Granville

The View: 2020 recovery-but no boom and plenty of risk

  • Worldwide 2019 downswing outside US & China caused by trade war Inventory liquidation in China & other EMs in 2019 1st half
  • Modest world trade revival in 2019 Q3 to continue into 2020
  • Chinese trade will fall in 2020, especially imports
  • US growth sub-2% in 2019 Q4 and 2020 Q1, then recovering
  • US 10-year yield was pulled down by EA/Japan weakness, now up a bit
  • Tepid European recovery - best hope is continued German wage gains
  • Brexit grind to continue, probably less visibly, in 2020
  • Fiscal deficits up and other factors imply higher dollar rates in long-run
  • Political risk in US 2020 elections is revival of Trump attack on EU
  • On the timing of bear market risk, the 2020 US election looks pivotal
  • A bear market is the most likely cause of a future US recession
     
22 Oct 2019 - Steven Blitz

The View: Recovery built with excess liquidity creates new recession triggers

  • Risk for households shifts to assets from liabilities
  • NFCs shift capital structure to foreign direct investment and debt
  • Private firms return, so too does the risk to them
  • Foreign sector lends to firms rather than Treasury - until now
  • Banks less leveraged with a very high percent of loans to corporates
  • Broker/Dealers constrained from calming a panicked market
  • Equity markets are the lynchpin for growth

China’s hypercontagious coronavirus has experts worried it could hurt the economy

21 Jan 2020 - CNBC

“Government and World Health Organization reports indicate that the virus is both less virulent and less deadly than SARS. The response from Beijing is also far faster this time than it was in 2002-04,” said Rory Green, economist for China and South Korea at research firm TS Lombard.

What Coronavirus Means for Chinese Stocks

21 Jan 2020 - Barrons

TS Lombard economist Rory Green told Barron’s via email, the hit to the Chinese economy will be “almost certainly” less than SARS. As for the broad market, Green argues the declines represent an overreaction.

Reasons to be cynical about the trade rally

18 Jan 2020 - Financial Times

Investors should be alive to signs of the ceasefire breaking down. As TS Lombard analysts highlight, “currency stability and the expansion of bilateral trade are the most important for assessing the deal’s short-term durability since any non-compliance on these will be evident immediately”.

China to stick to ‘phase one’ commitments, holding trade deal through US election, TS Lombard says

17 Jan 2020 - CNBC

“Beijing is invested in the deal insofar as it helps the leadership’s drive to stabilize the economy and boost market confidence; at the same time, it is hoping for further tariff rollbacks in due course,” Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at the firm, wrote in a Thursday report.

TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of thetectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
Anna Gaworzewska, Head of Country Risk Economics, Lloyds Banking Group
Congratulations on your Fed call. A feather in your cap. We can always count on your team tomake good calls ahead of consensus. That is really valuable to us and our clients. Thankyou.
Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be veryindependent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Theirarticles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

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